EUR/USD DAILY 4/30/09
The Euro is getting itself into a pinch. Sooner or later it will have to break out of this triangle. For now looks like this thing should continue to break to the down side. Just wait and see how things progress and trade off of support and resistance when the market is active.
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Forex range trading is heating up. It stands to reason that I should seek to place my S/R entries just prior to the turning points of the market. Often times these turning points occur from 10PM to 12:30 AM. Often an Asian move will be wiped out between 10 and 11PM. So why not if I see a pair hitting S/R at these times, place an order with a small stop to take advantage of hard resistance and support for a few pips.
update….. Friday night I try again this small stops and I am stopped out twice, once 2 pips and the other just 7 pips from being good trades. Again another trade was within 10 pips of activating for another 100 pips. Playing too tight cost me 46 pips in stop losses and at least 200 in profits…. just 2 more pips on one 15 pip stop loss would have made for a profitable day. fridays chart below
- Euro S/R Trendline hits 5/1/09
Also notice the hit on the lower trend line earlier in the week, where a larger stop would keep you in the game.
Play off of support and resistance and trendlines in this kind of market with Reasonable stops. This is not small range box market. Use the 1 and 4 hour charts.
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Continue reading about Enter on Resistance and Support 10-12:30
EUR/USD 1HR 7PM PST
The setup here is to enter short as it hits recent resistance with a small stop loss. A second entry is set 60 pips higher again with a small stop loss at the next resistance level, since it looks like it could move on up.
update 10PM…. TRADE entered at 6:30PM almost to the pip with only 2 pips drawdown before reversing. Very fortunate. The trade is currently 60 pips up with a 270 pip target and the stop loss set to break even. Now it is time to sleep and to let the trade play out and trail the stop above the dropping highs.
Update….. the trade was stopped out. I have canceled my other trade to stay in my 3 trade per week limit. Retroactively I know it is almost always the right thing to close profitable trades at 10PM as they almost always retrace before 11PM. The 10PM curse…
Well…. On the second trade I cancelled….It just touched the next resistance point and reversed and is now down 180 pips. I could have done well to leave the next trade up…. even with a reduced stop loss. or re entered short where I was stopped out..or use a big stop loss….12:45 peak.
LESSON
If you are confident in the recent resistance levels and the direction of the trend…. then it is a good play to place multiple trades with small stops at the resistance points obvious on the one hour and 4 hour charts.
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USD/CHF 4HR 4/28 8:20PM
Watch this one closely as well as the Euro. Both are nearing their trend lines and will probably have significant reversals near horizontal support/resistance. Be careful as the trades may blow past the trend lines as the Pound Yen did last night. Try to catch it on the uptick.
Also tonight I wish to throttle back to a maximum of 3 trades per week as I feel this alone will force me to take better trades.
update 7AM Still waiting to catch this on the retracement as it is at the trendline. FOMC out today so I have to wait utill that is over.
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GBP/JPY 1HR 10PM PST
Tonight’s setup is on the Pound/Yen against the trend looking for 200 pips as it retraces back to the previous high/resistance heading toward the top trend line.
This trade is up 35 pips since I started writing. This pair is known for its wild moves.
Stopped out for a loss. I had my stop set at breakeven and foolishly moved it. yikes. Update….7AM My instincts were right on this one, my managament just wrong after the pair went through the trendline 75 pips it turned and has now moved up over 200 pips. My Money !! ARRRGH. It bottomed out at 9:45PM. Be prepared for 100 pips stops with this pair.
Next time, catch it on the way back up!!!!! Use AH straragy……… I remember my forex coach.
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Continue reading about Trendline reversal setup Monday night
- EUR/USD 1HR 8AM PST 4/27
When there are no range boxes available to trade either stay out of the market or modify your style. Here we are looking at trading short as the spaghetti follows the trendline south.
GBP/USD 1HR
Wait for setups just like this one.
I have been back testing this weekend and I came across this chart back in October and it is such a perfect setup that I had to include it today, especially for those who crave indicators. At 11PM PST the pair was breaking its range box and the SMA spaghetti was beginning to spread perfectly and the stochastic was just right and the risk was very small. Go short at the vertical line.
A chart like this and you just want to throw half of your account at it. But don’t! (The 1HR Stochastic Spaghetti System) Note: the initial forex channel breakout was a false spike against the trend and if you ignored it you were paid well.
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- GBP/USD 15M
Today we have an example of the breakout entry as it retraces back to its former resistance, support. Enter long at arrow as it hits resistance turned support.
Continue reading about Support & Resistance Breakout Retracement Setup
