USD/JPY 15M 3:30 PM
Today the Tankan Index comes out in Japan at 4:50pm PST and it is almost positively will be negative for Japan.
Add that to the fact that the Yen is on the trend line running a small range channel makes me think going long is a low risk high potential payoff trade.
I will close this trade prior to the news release……. Up only 15 pips when closed. Trade popped up 40 pips on news and went down at least twice as much 10 minutes later.
Aussie news is out in 15 minutes, but it looks like the cat is out of the bag as it is moving now.
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AUS/USD 30M MARCH 31 6AM
The Aussie made a nice break out of its 30M range box at 5:30 PM yesterday and is setting up a smaller range box this morning at 6AM.
Notice that I am now looking for range boxes on larger time frame charts.
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GBP/USD 1HR 10:38AM 3/30
Here we have the Pound setting up again in 1 hour range channel. This may be a better trade if it retraces 50% before moving giving us a short entry signal.
In this post I have the babypips.com setup. 5 and 10 EMA’s and MACD. The confirming signal is a crossover and MACD confirming, with the trend. The trade breaks out at the crossover. The arrows are there to confuse everyone. This setup always triggers before the box breakout setup. Move stop to breakeven with 10-20 pips profit.
I am a breakout trend trader. Trade to make money, not because of the excitement.
Update……. 6AM 3/31 GBP is up 100 pips. Broke out around noon yesterday.
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EUR/USD 15M SUNDAY 3/29 9PM
To start the week out we have dollar strength showing up on many pairs. The range box on the Euro looks to the weak side as well. Breakout at 9PM……..
9AM update………. breakout down of this trade is currently about 100 pips in profit.
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Markets often transition from one predominant state to another. As a market trader it is imperative that we identify the markets current state before we determine how of if we will trade. First we need to define the main states of the market and then determine the best way to trade that market. For me I distinguish the market states as follows.
- Moving market………. the market is moving boldly whether forward or back and forth. This is the type of market we witnessed last fall and early winter. This type of market is ideal for breakout trading and pass thru trading.
- Trending market……… Almost any trade style is going to work in a trending market. If you can spot a trending market before it ends you can make money almost any old way.
- Wild market…….. Where you have wild swings in the market without discernible direction. This type of market is good for pass thru trading. Example the end of February and 1st of March.
- Raggedy market………. That we have just experienced this market since we went to daylight savings early in March The market raggedly moves about, languishing, reversing most breakouts and does not have the energy for pass thru trading to work. This kind of market is best to stay out of.
- News Market……….. Is the market in a tight channel prior to news? If so then it is a potential pre news trade setup. If it is wild and wolly it is best to stay out of it.
PUT YOUR MAXIMUN ATTENTION IN DETERMINING THE STATE OF THE MARKET BEFORE TRADING. If you correctly determine the state of the market you can then and only then implement a trade plan that will give you maximum return with minimum risk. Just as the direction of the whole stock market determines the direction of individual stocks, so the behavior of the currency market affects how it can be traded.
Just remember the shorter your trading time frame the more minscule twists of the market will whip you about. If you trade the bigger trends, then the micro problems will not affect you as mcuh.
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EUR/USD 5M Friday 5:30am
After a 200 pip drop last night we have a reversal candle on the Euro. You can see we had a meandering range that broke out shortly after 2 AM. I was asleep for that one. Update……. reversal candle does not seem to want to go anywhere. Time is up get out….
March madness is about over. We will probably see a return to more trading opportunities next month.
Note…. The pass thru stop hunting trade was functional last night… again…. 1 hour later because of the time changes in USA…. I will be watching this pattern next month to see if it again becomes regular. Also notice, as the stock market goes so goes the dollar. Market up dollar up, market down dollar down.
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Unemployment news was not sufficient of a deviation to immediately move the market. Not trades today. Wait for a better market.
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GBP/USD 1M
EUR/USD 1M AFTER NEWS
This news must have sprung a leak because the pair jumped 5 minutes before schedule with several opportunities to jump in after the move. From the chart you can see it offered a chance to get in at a retracement on the second minute out. The pound easily qualified as a prenews trade with its tight range channel.
GBP/USD 5M news reversal
